For now, this section of my blog is basically just my notes, comments and reactions to course materials. There are three main sections: IPCC Reports, Bill McKibben, and Guest Speakers. The IPPC Reports and Bill McKibben novels can be found on the "Recommended Readings" page.
IPCC Reports
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Working Group 1: "The Physical Science Basis"1. Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change
- Increase in carbon dioxide concentration—fossil fuels and land use
- Increase in methane and nitrous oxide—agriculture
- Carbon dioxide = most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas
- Carbon dioxide radiative forcing increased by 20% from 1995-2005, the largest change for any decade in at least the last 20 years
2. Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
- 11 of the past 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest in instrumental record of global surface temperature
- Above average atmospheric water vapor since 1980s; warm air holds more water vapor
- Global ocean temperatures increasing to depths of at least 3,000m; ocean absorbing 80% of heat added to climate system; sea levels rise because expand
- Mt. glacial + snow cover decreasing; contribute to rising sea levels
- Average Arctic temperature increasing at 2x global average in past 100 years
- Changes in precipitation
- Widespread changes in extreme temperatures over last 50 years
- Cold days/nights/frost less frequent
- Hot days/nights/heat waves more frequent
- Evidence of increase in tropical cyclone activity in N. Atlantic since 1970.
3. A Palaeoclimatic Perspective
- Paleoclimatology: study changes in climatically sensitive indicators to infer past changes in global climate (decades—millions of years)
- N. Hemisphere temperatures during 2nd half of the 20thc. likely higher than other 50 year in last 500 years--likely highest in past 1,300 years
- Before last ice age, sea level 4-6m higher than in 20thc.
4. Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
- Human influence—ocean warming, continental average temperatures, temperature extremes, wind patterns
- Significant anthropogenic warming over past 50 years on every continent, except Antarctica
- Natural climate variability vs. External forcings
- Equilibrium climate sensitivity: measure of climate system response to sustained radiative forcing
5. Projections of Future Changes in Climate
- Warming about 0.2 degrees C for next 2 decades projected
- Even if, 2000s green house gas levels kept at years constant—0.1 degree C warming per decade trend expected
- Further warming and changes on global climate system if greenhouse gas emissions continue at or above current rates
- Warming expected to be greatest over and at most high N. latitude; least over S. ocean and parts of N. Atlantic Ocean
- Increase in thaw depth—permafrost regions
- Sea ice shrunk—Arctic and Antarctic
- Increase in frequency extreme heat, heat waves, heavy precipitation
- Future cyclones more intense
- Increase in precipitation at high latitude; decrease in precipitation at subtropical land regions—as much as 20%
- Poleward movement of extratropical storm tracks
- MOC (meridional overturning circulation) of Atlantic Ocean slow down during 21stc; increase in Atlantic region
- Past and present anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions to contribute to global warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to time scales required for removal of gas from the atmosphere.
Reaction
For me, the scientific evidence of how our planet is changing is shocking. In the USA we've already seen heat waves, with summers in the Midwest setting record breaking temperatures. There has also been the increase in hurricanes, with the record setting 15 hurricanes in 2005--five of which hit land--which included Hurricane Katrina. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) stated that the 2010 hurricane season was one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record, with 19 names storms--12 of which became hurricanes.
"Large-scale climate features strongly influenced this year’s hurricane activity, as they often do. This year, record warm Atlantic waters, combined with the favorable winds coming off Africa and weak wind shear aided by La Niña energized developing storms. The 2010 season continues the string of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.
But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land."
I think one of the most depressing statements in this IPPC report is that, "past and present anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions to contribute to global warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to time scales required for removal of gas from the atmosphere." It makes me feel like no changes we make are going to matter--they won't be enough--because the CO2 in the atmosphere would take 1,000 years to remove. That's depressing--cue chocolate please!
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| Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia (from left to right on Sept. 16, 2010) |
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| 2010 track map for the Atlantic Basin |
But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land."
I think one of the most depressing statements in this IPPC report is that, "past and present anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions to contribute to global warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to time scales required for removal of gas from the atmosphere." It makes me feel like no changes we make are going to matter--they won't be enough--because the CO2 in the atmosphere would take 1,000 years to remove. That's depressing--cue chocolate please!
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"Read it, please. Straight through to the end. Whatever else you were planning to do next, nothing could be more important." —Barbara Kingsolver
Preface
- Global warming—altered hydrological cycles
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o Arid regions—more evaporation—drought
o Increased flooding due to downpours
o Total rainfall across North America increase by 7%
- Eastern USA
o Increase in extreme weather (20%)
o Flood damage increase (5%)
o E.g. Vermont
- No philosophy (Like in Hope, Human and Wild)
o Toss ideologies out to figure out how to protect core society/civilization
o Embrace reality
o “Maturity is not the opposite of hope; it’s what makes hope possible”
- Copenhagen conference
o Turning point for worse
o Ignore problem(s)
o “It’s our future you decide”
- Local + Global engagement
- 350.org
- Must change NOW before no way to possibly adapt
Reaction
We’ve got one planet. Up until now we’ve been doing a really great job of destroying it. We can’t keep ignoring the issues—we have to make changes now. We need to start healing the planet—either fix it or lose it—because it’s the only one we have. Global Climate Issues are not up for the few to decide, they’re up for everyone to decide.
I highly recommend checking out 350.org and Bill McKibben's website.
Chapter 1
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| Facts and Figures |
- 10,000 years, average temperature 58˚F-60˚F (“sweet spot”)
- Humans have increase temperature by 1.5˚F
- 45% increase in ocean thunderheads
- 1˚F increase: 6% increase in lightning
- 40% decrease in sea ice over 40 years
- 75% increase in W. Antarctic sea ice loss
- 2.6˚ latitude increase of tropics
- Every 1-2 years: “exceptionally hot”
- 40 million tons, reduction in wheat, rice, and barley production
- 75% rise in hurricanes since 1995
- 8.2-8.1 pH ocean acidification
- 275ppm in atmospheric CO2 for 10,000 years
- 390ppm, atmospheric CO2 today
- 1,600 billion tons of carbon held in permafrost
Reaction
Bill McKibben restates a lot of the facts presented in the IPPC reports, in a slightly more understandable and hard-hitting way—not that the IPPC reports are not completely depressing in of themselves. As of the first chapter, Mckibben’s Eaarth is an onslaught of snarky hard-hitting facts on Global Climate Change. When McKibben is talking about “safe” levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere it’s clear to see how feed-up he is with governments around the world not making effective policies. “To give you an idea of how aggressively the world’s governments are willing to move, in July 2009 the thirteen largest emitters met in Washington to agree on an ‘aspirational’ goal of 50 percent cuts of carbon by 2050, which falls pretty close to the category of ‘don’t bother’” (McKibben 18). McKibben explains that scientists believe that the maximum “safe” level of atmospheric carbon is 350ppm. At the rates that the world leaders are going, evening erring of the side of “insane optimism—the world in 2100 would have about 600ppm carbon dioxide. That is, we’d live if not in hell, then in some place with a very similar temperature” (McKibben 20). For me, the last paragraph is the hardest to swallow because it’s all the hard-hitting facts of doom and gloom wrapped into one paragraph. Once again, cue the chocolate!--- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - --- - ---
Guest Speakers
The guest speaker that stood out the most to me during the past couple of weeks was Cari DeLong, Natural Areas and Preserves Coordinator. She gave a great presentation about two areas that I was not even aware of, yet I've driven by them multiple times.
I thought it was quite interesting how so many areas of study--from biology to geology--all use the area and are working to preserve this area.
Cari DeLong spoke with us about the specific needs for each area and how all of the different habitats at the preserve require different protection measures. With each area, they have four main goals:
1. Improve ecological health.
2. Increase native vegetation and decrease non-native vegetation.
3. Decrease erosion.
4. Improve habitat for endangered and/or species of special concern.
I honestly thought this was just some creepy field--I never new what was back there--but after Cari's talk, I'm looking forward to exploring the area in the summer. Oh, and I thought it was hilarious that the volunteers make pesto out of garlic mustard. Maybe they should start selling it to places like Food Dance and raise some money for the preserve!
Kleinstuck Preserve is 50 acres and nestled within a neighborhood. The preserve is kept beautiful by the Stewards of Kleinstuck."The Stewards of Kleinstuck unite neighbors, ecologists and WMU land managers to create a healthier, more diverse and beautiful ecosystem in the Kleinstuck Preserve, for the benefit of our community and wildlife."
